A Novel, Dynamic Statistical Model for Predicting Patient Satisfaction with Fundoplication Based on Pre-Operative Symptom Patterns

Background Fundoplication provides excellent control of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), but there remain a number of unsatisfied patients who have proven difficult to identify pre-operatively. We hypothesised that pre-operative symptom patterns can predict of the risk of post-operative dissatisfaction. Methods Pre-operative symptoms and post-operative satisfaction were measured using standardised questionnaires along with routine investigations. These data were used to calculate our novel pre-operative risk of dissatisfaction (PROD) score. Potential pre-operative prognostic markers were tested against the post-operative satisfaction data, including the objective investigations and the PROD score. The prognostic utility of the PROD score and the Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons (SAGES) guideline was tested using receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine the area under the curve (AUC). Results An association was found between our PROD score and each of the satisfaction measures ( n = 225, p < 0.001) which is likely to be of prognostic utility (AUC = 0.67–0.79). No such association was found between the routine investigations and post-operative satisfaction. The PROD score was found to be of greater prognostic utility than the SAGES guideline ( n = 166, p < 0.001). Conclusions The PROD score is a novel, easy-to-use test that can predict individual patient satisfaction with fundoplication.