Stated Pain Levels, Opioid Prescription Volume, and Chronic Opioid Use Among United States Army Soldiers.

Introduction: The use of opioids has increased drastically over the past few years and decades. As a result, concerns have mounted over serious outcomes associated with chronic opioid use (COU), including dependency and death. A greater understanding of the factors that are associated with COU will be critical if prescribers are to navigate potentially competing objectives to provide compassionate care, while reducing the overall opioid use problem. In this study, we study pain levels and opioid prescription volumes and their effects on the risk of COU. This study leveraged passive data sources that support automated decision support systems (DSSs) currently employed in a large military population. The models presented compute monthly, person-specific, adjusted probability of subsequent COT and could potentially provide critical decision support for clinicians engaged in pain management. Materials and Methods: The study population included all outpatient presentations at military medical facilities worldwide among active duty United States Army soldiers during July 2011 to September 2014 (17,664,006 encounters; population N = 552,193). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of this population and employed longitudinal data and a discrete time multivariable logistic regression model to compute COT probability scores. The contribution of pain scores and opioid prescription quantities to the probability of COT represented analytic foci. Results: There were 13,891 subjects (2.5%) who experienced incident COT during the observed time period. Statistically significant interactions between pain scores and prescription quantity were present, in addition to effects of multiple other control variables. Counts of monthly opioid prescriptions and maximum stated pain scores per month were each positively associated with COT. A wide range in individual COT risk scores was evident. The effect of prescription volume on the COT risk was larger than the effect of the pain score, and the combined effect of larger pain scores and increased prescription quantity was moderated by the interaction term. Conclusions: The results verified that passive data on the US Army can support a robust COT risk computation in this population. The individual, adjusted risk level requires statistical analyses to be fully understood. Because the same data sources drive current military DSSs, this work provides the potential basis for new, evidence-based decision support resources for military clinicians. The strong, independent impact of increasing opioid prescription counts on the COT risk reinforces the importance of exploring alternatives to opioids in pain management planning. It suggests that changing provider behavior through enhanced decision support could help reduce COT rates.