Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States.

Epidemics(2018)

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摘要
•Accurately forecasting the different characteristics of an influenza epidemic in the United States is challenging.•Different models achieved the best average skill for national-level start and peak week and peak intensity forecasts.•The weekly forecast skill score for start and peak week forecasts was generally low early in the season (October–December).•The skill scores for short-term forecasts of influenza-like illness 1–4 weeks in advance were highest 1 week ahead.•Short-term forecasts had higher skill scores outside the influenza season than during the influenza season.
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CDC,HHS,ILI,MMWR,ILINet
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