The Future Of Cmos: More Moore Or The Next Big Thing?

This paper discusses the industrial and research status of CMOS and CMOS-like commercial and emerging technologies. Effects of scaling on transistor cost, max. system complexity and performance are discussed. Performance of state-of-the-art CMOS VLSI systems is power-constrained. To discuss various existing and emerging technologies, a model of an abstract, technology-independent ideal switch is proposed. It is shown that in the power-constrained scenario the maximum performance (in terms of clock speed) is limited by the static I-off current, and the I-on current (i.e. the current flowing when the device is switched on) is of secondary importance. CMOS and CMOS-like technologies: bulk CMOS, FDSOI, FinFET, tunnel FETs, junctionless FETs, nanowire FETs, and non-Si devices (e.g. carbon-based devices) are briefly presented and their technology readiness level is estimated. The main conclusion is that Si-based CMOS will remain the key VLSI technology for the next decade or longer, and older technology nodes (65 nm - 350 nm) will not be abandoned.