Abstract MP53: The Impact of the Obesity Epidemic on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores: The CARDIA Study

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has decreased over recent decades, in part, due to changes in the prevalence of risk factors. However, few studies have explored the impact of the obesity epidemic on CVD risk prediction in young adults. Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that BMI trends are positively associated with changes in 10-year AHA/ACC atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores from young adulthood to middle age beyond the effect of other CVD risk factors included in the scores (age, sex, race, lipids, blood pressure, hypertension medication, diabetes, smoking). METHODS: Data were obtained from 2437 black and white men and women aged 18-30 years at baseline (1985-1986) enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study with follow-up exams at year 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (ages 43-55 years). Repeated-measures regression was used to model the association between ASCVD risk scores and time-varying BMI measures. RESULTS: The average 10-year ASCVD risk increased from 0.6% at baseline (mean age: 25.3) to 3.9% at year 25 (mean age: 50.3) with the change higher for men (blacks: 1.0 to 8.2%, whites: 0.3 to 4.6%) than women (blacks: 0.5 to 3.6%, whites: 1.2 to 1.4%). The overall prevalence of obesity at baseline and year 25 was 10% and 42% respectively. BMI trends were positively associated with 10-year change in ASCVD risk scores (0.12% per 1 kg/m2 increase, p<0.001). BMI adjustment minimally reduced risk scores trends with the greatest change between unadjusted and adjusted risk scores observed among black women (0.1 to 3.0%) (Figures A and B). CONCLUSION: In young adults, BMI trends are associated positively with 10-year changes in ASCVD risk independent of other risk factors. This adds to the evidence that weight control in early adulthood is an important predictor of lower future CVD risk.