Different trajectories of industrial evolution: demographical turnover in the European motorcycle industry, 1885-1993

Technological innovation is widely considered as one of the most influential determinants of industry evolution. Along this line of inquiry, the seminal work of Tushman and Anderson (1986) presents one of the most compelling theoretical argumentations. Yet, the empirical support for their theory has been relatively weak, and an academic agreement is still lacking about the long-term consequences of technological innovation for the demographic composition of industries. This paper uses the information collected on 1,906 manufacturers during the period 1895 and 1993, to investigate the influence of technological innovation on the evolution of four different organizational populations - i.e. Great Britain, Germany, France and Italy. The findings of this research only partially agree with the theory. Our results show that, while innovations promoted entries, incumbent firms survived to environmental changes. The implications of this work are related to the literatures of strategic management and population ecology.