Experience of predicting of expected excess mortality due to climate change: a case study in Arkhangelsk.

A quantitative forecast of expected changes in mortality due to global warming by year 2050 has been developed for the city of Arkhangelsk. The expected changes in the temperature regime for each calendar date were estimated by regionalization of an ensemble of atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models. The expected changes in frequency and duration of heat waves and cold spells between the periods 1980-1999 and 2040-2059 were also estimated. Modeling of the temperature-dependent mortality has shown that reduction in the winter mortality overweighed the summer increase. The overall effect will likely be beneficial for public health: total annual mortality will decrease by about 2 %.