Simplified methods for real-time prediction of storm surge uncertainty: The city of Venice case study
Advances in Water Resources(2014)
摘要
•Probabilistic predictions of storm surge are crucial for coastal settlements.•Meteorological ensembles allow for reliable estimations of sea level uncertainty.•Uncertainty estimation via deterministic models is time-consuming for real time.•Uncertainty estimation is obtained via linear regression of meteorological inputs.•Probabilistic storm surge forecast is obtained with negligible computational cost.
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关键词
Storm surge forecast,Uncertainty prediction,Real-time forecasting,Venice,Ensemble Prediction System
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