Low risk of attrition among adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Rwandan national program: a retrospective cohort analysis of 6, 12, and 18 month outcomes

Background We report levels and determinants of attrition in Rwanda, one of the few African countries with universal ART access. Methods We analyzed data abstracted from health facility records of a nationally representative sample of adults [≥18 years] who initiated ART 6, 12, and 18 months prior to data collection; and collected facility characteristics with a health facility assessment questionnaire. Weighted proportions and rates of attrition [loss to follow-up or death] were calculated, and patient- and health facility-level factors associated with attrition examined using Cox proportional hazard models. Results 1678 adults initiated ART 6, 12 and 18 months prior to data collection, with 1508 person-years [PY] on ART. Attrition was 6.8% [95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0-7.8]: 2.9% [2.4-3.5] recorded deaths and 3.9% [3.4-4.5] lost to follow-up. Population attrition rate was 7.5/100PY [6.1-9.3]. Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for attrition was 4.2 [3.0-5.7] among adults enrolled from in-patient wards [vs 2.2 [1.6-3.0] from PMTCT, ref: VCT]. Compared to adults who initiated ART 18 months earlier, aHR for adults who initiated ART 12 and 6 months earlier was 1.8 [1.3-2.5] and 1.3 [0.9-1.9] respectively. Male aHR was 1.4 [1.0-1.8]. AHR of adults enrolled at urban health facilities was 1.4 [1.1-1.8, ref: rural health facilities]. AHR for adults with CD4+ ≥200 cells/μL vs <200 cells/μL was 0.8 [0.6-1.0]; and adults attending facilities with performance-based financing since 2004–2006 [vs. 2007–2008] had aHR 0.8 [0.6-0.9]. Conclusions Attrition was low in the Rwandan national program. The above patient and facility correlates of attrition can be the focus of interventions to sustain high retention.