Value of APACHE II scoring system in predicting the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis

AIM: To evaluate the value of APACHE II scoring system in predicting the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). METHODS: Three hundred consecutive SAP patients, admitted into West China Hospital of Sichuan University from 2004 to 2007, were studied retrospectively. Data associated to APACHE II scoring system were recorded. We analyzed the APACHE II score of the patients with various outcomes and the relationship between the mortality and APACHE II score on the 1th, 3th and 7th day. The prediction results of dead and survived patients using 8, 9, 10, and 11 scores as the cut off points were also analyzed. RESULTS: The APACHE II score between the dead patients or patients with local complications and recovered patients showed significant differences (P = 0 and 0.001 < 0.01). The mortality rate increased with the growing APACHE II score. The APACHE II score on the 1th, 3th and 7th day was positively correlated with mortality rates. And the correlation on the 3rd day was the strongest. The APACHE II score within 24 h no less than 10 score was the best cut off point to predict the prognosis of SAP. CONCLUSION: APACHE II scoring system can dynamically predict the changes of SAP and play a very important role in assessing prognosis and guiding therapy.