热带气旋尺度预报性能评估及订正技术
doaj（2025）
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Abstract
分析中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心的区域台风数值预报系统(CMA-TYM)2020—2023年西北太平洋热带气旋强度尺度预报,探讨CMA-TYM初始涡旋尺度误差对热带气旋后期尺度和强度预报性能的影响.结果表明:CMA-TYM初始涡旋的中心位置与强度较准确,但内核尺度误差较大,其中47％样本的最大风速半径误差较观测偏大1倍以上,26 m·s-1风圈半径(R26)和33 m·s-1风圈半径(R33)被高估,17 m·s-1风圈半径(R17)误差较小.初始涡旋尺度误差越大,所需调整时间越长,通常6～18 h调整完毕.R17和后期预报R17的高滞后相关(大于0.6)的持续时间达48 h,表明初始尺度对后期变化影响显著.CMA-TYM初始涡旋最大风速半径(RMW)尺度过大是增强率偏弱的原因之一,初始尺度误差偏大的涡旋后期R17预报误差也偏大.利用CMA-TYM涡旋初始误差以及预报强度、尺度信息作为预测因子,利用XGBoost方法构建了R17订正模型,结果表明:订正前后的R17尺度24 h预报均方根误差从59.8 km降低至31.8 km,降低了46.8％,约79％的热带气旋预报在经过尺度调整后尺度误差得到改善,表明订正模型具有较好的应用价值.
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Key words
tropical cyclone,size,intensity,size change rate,intensity change rate
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