基于Bayes和Bootstrap方法的智能电表可靠性评估
Southern Power System Technology（2022）
Abstract
针对智能电表现场数据不能涵盖其整个生命周期、加速寿命试验应力同实际运行环境存在差异使得仅以单一数据源为依据的可靠性评估结果不够准确的问题,提出了结合Bayes和Bootstrap方法的智能电表可靠性评估方法.该方法采用Bootstrap方法处理现场数据,得到智能电表可靠性模型参数的离散分布,以该离散分布作为先验信息,采用Bayes方法结合加速寿命试验数据得到融合两种信息后的参数估计值,实现智能电表的可靠性评估.实例结果表明,该方法得到的智能电表可靠性模型在前半段贴近现场实际情况,在后半段有涵盖全生命周期的试验数据作为支撑,可用于智能电表整个生命周期的可靠性评估.
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