Historical climate drivers and species’ ecological niche in the Beaufort Sea food web

Abstract Climate change impacts have been particularly acute and rapid in the Arctic, raising concerns about the conservation of key ecologically and culturally significant species (e.g. beluga whales, Arctic cod), with consequences for the Indigenous community groups in the region. Here, we build on an Ecopath with Ecosim model for the Canadian Beaufort Sea Shelf and Slope to examine historical (1970–2021) changes in the ecological dynamics of the food web and key species under climate change. We compare the individual and cumulative effects of (i) increased sea surface temperature; (ii) reduced sea ice extent; (iii) ocean deoxygenation; and (iv) changing ocean salinity in the ecosystem models. We found that including salinity time series in our ecosystem models reduced the diversity found within the ecosystem, and altered the trophic levels, biomass, and consumption rates of some marine mammal and fish functional groups, including the key species: beluga whales, as well as Arctic and polar cods. Inclusion of the dissolved oxygen time series showed no difference to ecosystem indicators. The model findings reveal valuable insights into the attribution of temperature and salinity on Arctic ecosystems and highlight important factors to be considered to ensure that existing conservation measures can support climate adaptation.