Complex system analysis of the implications of hydrogen fuel cell trucks in China's road freight transportation

China's road freight transport volume has dramatically increased over recent years, leading to substantial energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles provide a novel approach for the hardto-abate industrial sector. This research developed a model of China's road freight industry based on an agentbased complex system. The model was utilized to evaluate the diffusion of hydrogen fuel cell truck (HFCT) fleets and their environmental impacts by inspecting five diverse pathways. Wherein Pathway 1 represents the conventional business-as-usual approach, Pathway 2 signifies the potential for technological advancements, Pathway 3 illustrates the application of CCS technology, Pathway 4 showcases the potential for increased production of green hydrogen, while Pathway 5 encompasses a combination of these scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the following conclusions can be drawn: Truck purchasers are more sensitive to the price of hydrogen than HFCTs, especially heavy-duty truck purchasers. Without policy intervention, HFCTs will have difficulty attracting consumers in the near future. Fossil -based hydrogen production with CCS combined with strengthened fiscal subsidies is the only way to achieve the goal of one million HFCTs by 2035. From the tank -to -wheel perspective, all pathways will reach peak carbon emissions after 2030, which can be completed in 2033 at the earliest. From the standpoint of well-to-wheel, both Pathway 4, which increases the proportion of green hydrogen, and Pathway 3, which introduces carbon capture and storage (CCS) in fossil -based hydrogen production, can achieve significant carbon emission reduction.