Assessing structural connectivity and anthropogenic impacts on Ambystoma altamirani populations in Bosque de Agua, Central Mexico

Abstract Ambystoma altamirani is a microendemic amphibian limited to central Mexico, specifically the Bosque de Agua region in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, renowned for its endemic amphibian species. Anthropogenic activities such as land use change, water pollution, and the introduction of exotic species such as rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) have substantially transformed its habitat, creating barriers that fragment it and impeding the mobility of the species and connectivity with other populations. This fragmentation poses challenges, including emerging diseases, inbreeding, limited gene flow, and a loss of genetic diversity, placing Ambystoma altamirani in national and international risk categories. The present study utilized the ENMeval and biomod2 models for environmental niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential distribution of Ambystoma altamirani in the Bosque de Agua region. The key supporting variables include rivers, lakes, altitude, and a combination of Abies and Pinus forests, while the detrimental factors include urbanization and agriculture. Employing circuit theory (CT) and least-cost path (LCP) methodologies, this research explored structural connectivity, identifying core areas in the central region of Bosque de Agua. As migration distance decreases, the number of corridors facilitating population flow decreases. In the concluding phase, an analysis assessed the coincidence of state and federal Mexican Natural Protected Areas with core areas, revealing a lack of protection. The results of this study could lead to improved knowledge about Ambystoma altamirani, providing valuable tools for helping stakeholders formulate comprehensive strategies for species conservation.