Enhancing fatigue reliability prediction of offshore wind turbine jacket joints through individual uncertainties for each degree of freedom of stress concentration factor

This paper presents the fatigue reliability prediction for welded planar tubular joints of offshore fixed jacket support structures. A coupled model is employed to calculate the dynamic response of the jacket support structure under wind and wave loads. Stress concentration factors (SCFs) are evaluated using Efthymiou parametric equations, and the hot-spot stresses at eight locations on the chord and brace of the tubular joints are derived by summing the stress components from axial, in-plane, and out-of-plane actions. The stress distribution is determined using the rainflow counting method, fatigue damage from an S–N curve, and Miner’s rule. Uncertainties associated with the fatigue lifetime evaluation procedure are identified, quantified, and modeled. The focus is specifically given to modeling the uncertainty related to the SCFs, and a framework is proposed to evaluate the fatigue reliability of the joint by incorporating individual uncertainties for each degree of freedom of the SCFs (i.e., axial load crown, axial load saddle, in-plane bending moment, and out-of-plane bending moment). The results reveal that assuming the same uncertainty level (Coefficient of Variation of 0.2) as recommended by DNV-RP-C210 for each degree of freedom of the SCFs and including the uncertainty after obtaining the stress distribution from rainflow counting does not consistently yield conservative reliability index values, as it depends on the critical hot spot. It is essential to note that the simplified assumptions derived from the oil and gas sector may not directly translate to the offshore wind industry due to differences in loading conditions. A reduction of up to approximately 24% in the reliability index is observed for one critical hot spot, while an increase of up to 20% was observed for another. Overall, this paper provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of factors affecting the reliability of joints in offshore fixed jacket support structures, shedding light on the need for tailored approaches to address uncertainties in the specific context of the offshore wind industry.