Analysis of the cooperative development of multiple systems for urban Economy-Energy-Carbon: A case study of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

Climate change profoundly impacts the transformation of social and economic systems. This study utilized ridge regression, the TOPSIS method, and a coupling coordination model to analyze the coupling coordination of the Economy-Energy-Carbon (EEC) system in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle from 2005 to 2021. Additionally, this study establishes a system dynamics model that integrates the sharing economy scenario to predict the coupling coordination status of the EEC system in typical cities from 2022 to 2030. The study findings reveal that (1) Enhancing the economic subsystem has a major positive impact on coupling coordination, followed closely by the carbon subsystem. (2) The overall coupling coordination level in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has experienced a slight average annual decrease of 0.75% from 2005 to 2021. (3) Chengdu and Chongqing demonstrate significantly higher coupling coordination levels, surpassing 0.65 annually. (4) Only four cities (Chongqing, Chengdu, Suining, and Yaan) are gradually improving dynamic coupling coordination. (5) The most effective development scenarios for different subsystems differ from those for coupling coordination. The research methods proposed for the EEC system have the potential to achieve regional sustainable development goals and apply to other developing urban clusters.