Conformal Prediction with Learned Features
arxiv(2024)
摘要
In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with
conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct
nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth
of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, relying
on some predefined uncertainty structures. Departing from this line of
thinking, we propose Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP), a
framework to improve conditional validity of prediction sets through learning
uncertainty-guided features from the calibration data. We implement PLCP
efficiently with alternating gradient descent, utilizing off-the-shelf machine
learning models. We further analyze PLCP theoretically and provide conditional
guarantees for infinite and finite sample sizes. Finally, our experimental
results over four real-world and synthetic datasets show the superior
performance of PLCP compared to state-of-the-art methods in terms of coverage
and length in both classification and regression scenarios.
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