Roadmap towards clean and low-carbon heating to 2060: The case of northern urban region in China

With higher requirements for living comfort, heating demand continue rising. Currently, heating in northern urban region is still dominated by coal consumption, which combined with inefficient equipment systems, presents a severe challenge for building sector to achieve net-zero emissions. In this study, by predicting final heating demand in northern urban region to 2060 and inputting it into Northern Urban Region Heating System Model, we solve the production structure of heating technologies with cost-optimal way and then account for energy consumption and carbon emissions. Finally, the energy conservation and emission reduction potential of clean and low-carbon strategies were analyze. The results show that the share of clean heating technologies is 91%, 97%, and 100%, and coal-fired CHP technology still accounts for approximately 37%-46% in 2060 under different scenarios. In two abatement scenarios, heating energy consumption decreased by 31% and 55%, and carbon emissions reduced by 71% and 88% by 2060. From the energy conservation and emission reduction potential analysis, clean heating technology application and low-carbon technology application will contribute the main force to future. This research is of great significance, on the one hand, it provides a theoretical basis for the modeling heating system. On the other hand, it provides feasible heating transition paths, which assist building sector achieving net-zero emissions.