Variability in the prevalence of depression among adults with chronic pain: UK Biobank analysis through clinical prediction models

The prevalence of depression among people with chronic pain remains unclear due to the heterogeneity of study samples and definitions of depression. We aimed to identify sources of variation in the prevalence of depression among people with chronic pain and generate clinical prediction models to estimate the probability of depression among individuals with chronic pain. Participants were from the UK Biobank. The primary outcome was a “lifetime” history of depression. The model’s performance was evaluated using discrimination (optimism-corrected C statistic) and calibration (calibration plot). Analyses included 24,405 patients with chronic pain (mean age 64.1 years). Among participants with chronic widespread pain, the prevalence of having a “lifetime” history of depression was 45.7