Global Water Basins under Combined Climate Mitigation, Adaptation, and Sustainable Development Targets

Abstract Water systems are crucial for sustainable development and energy-water-land system-wide climate mitigation and adaptation to changing climate. We explore the dynamic interplay between climate change adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development within these systems. We demonstrate, how strategic investments in a “Resilience scenario” – climate mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) combined, leads to approximately 20% reduction in water stress for vulnerable populations promoting sustainable water and energy systems. Despite the Resilience scenario targets, about one-third of global population (2.8 billion people) is expected to face adaptation barriers by mid-century, hindered by inadequate governance capacity. We demonstrate that investments in SDGs, combined with climate mitigation strategies, are more beneficial for the water sector than pursuing SDGs alone. Our findings suggest a necessary convergence of sustainable development, climate resilience, and human welfare to create a climate-resilient sustainable future, marking a significant step forward in facilitating integrated environmental policy and decision-making.