Estimating species distribution from camera trap by-catch data, using jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) as an example

Aim: Planning conservation action requires accurate estimates of abundance and distribution of the target species. For many mammals, particularly those inhabiting tropical forests, there are insufficient data to assess their conservation status. We present a framework for predicting species distribution using jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi), a poorly known felid for which basic information on abundance and distribution is lacking. Location: Mesoamerica and South America. Time Period: From 2003 to 2021. Taxa: Herpailurus yagouaroundi. Methods: We combined camera-trap data from multiple sites and used an occupancy modelling framework accounting for imperfect detection to identify habitat associations and predict the range-wide distribution of jaguarundis. Results: Our model predicted that the probability of jaguarundi occupancy is positively associated with rugged terrain, herbaceous cover, and human night-time light intensity. Jaguarundi occupancy was predicted to be higher where precipitation was less seasonal, and at intermediate levels of diurnal temperature range. Our camera data also revealed additional detections of jaguarundis beyond the current International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range distribution, including the Andean foothills of Colombia and Bolivia. Main Conclusion: Occupancy was predicted to be low throughout much of Amazonian lowlands, a vast area at the centre of jaguarundi known range. Further work is required to investigate whether this area represents sub-optimal conditions for the species. Overall, we estimate a crude global jaguarundi population of 35,000 to 230,000 individuals, covering 4,453,406 km(2) of Meso- and South America at the 0.5 probability level of occupancy. Our current framework allows for an initially detailed, well-informed species distribution that should be challenged and refined with improved habitat layers and additional records of jaguarundi detection. We encourage similar studies of lesser-known mammals, pooling existing by-catch data from the growing bank of camera-trap surveys around the world.