Dynamic bTMB combined with residual ctDNA improves survival prediction in locally advanced NSCLC patients with chemoradiotherapy and consolidation immunotherapy

Background Liquid biopsy-based biomarkers, including circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and blood tumor mutational burden (bTMB), are recognized as promising predictors of prognoses and responses to immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI), despite insufficient sensitivity of single biomarker detection. This research aims to determine whether the combinatorial utility of longitudinal ctDNA with bTMB analysis could improve the prognostic and predictive effects. Methods This prospective two-center cohort trial, consisting of discovery and validation datasets, enrolled unresectable locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) patients and assigned them to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) or CRT + consolidation ICI cohorts from 2018 to 2022. Blood specimens were collected pretreatment, 4 weeks post-CRT, and at progression to assess bTMB and ctDNA using 486-gene next-generation sequencing. Dynamic ∆bTMB was calculated as post-CRT bTMB minus baseline bTMB levels. Decision curve analyses were performed to calculate C-index. Results One hundred twenty-eight patients were enrolled. In the discovery dataset (n = 73), patients treated with CRT and consolidation ICI had significantly longer overall survival (OS; median not reached [NR] vs 20.2 months; P < 0.001) and progression-free survival (PFS; median 25.2 vs 11.4 months; P = 0.011) than those without ICI. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a significant decrease in ctDNA abundance post-CRT (P < 0.001) but a relative increase with disease progression. Post-CRT detectable residual ctDNA correlated with significantly shorter OS (median 18.3 months vs NR; P = 0.001) and PFS (median 7.3 vs 25.2 months; P < 0.001). For patients with residual ctDNA, consolidation ICI brought significantly greater OS (median NR vs 14.8 months; P = 0.005) and PFS (median 13.8 vs 6.2 months; P = 0.028) benefit, but no significant difference for patients with ctDNA clearance. Dynamic ∆bTMB was predictive of prognosis. Patients with residual ctDNA and increased ∆bTMB (∆bTMB > 0) had significantly worse OS (median 9.0 vs 23.0 months vs NR; P < 0.001) and PFS (median 3.4 vs 7.3 vs 25.2 months; P < 0.001). The combinatorial model integrating post-CRT ctDNA with ∆bTMB had optimal predictive effects on OS (C-index = 0.723) and PFS (C-index = 0.693), outperforming individual features. In the independent validation set, we confirmed residual ctDNA predicted poorer PFS (median 50.8 vs 14.3 months; P = 0.026) but identified more consolidation ICI benefit (median NR vs 8.3 months; P = 0.039). The combined model exhibited a stable predictive advantage (C-index = 0.742 for PFS). Conclusions The multiparameter assay integrating qualitative residual ctDNA testing with quantitative ∆bTMB dynamics improves patient prognostic risk stratification and efficacy predictions, allowing for personalized consolidation therapy for LA-NSCLC.