Prediction and analysis of risk factors for diabetic retinopathy based on machine learning and interpretable models

Objective Diabetic retinopathy is one of the major complications of diabetes. In this study, a diabetic retinopathy risk prediction model integrating machine learning models and SHAP was established to increase the accuracy of risk prediction for diabetic retinopathy, explain the rationality of the findings from model prediction and improve the reliability of prediction results. Methods Data were preprocessed for missing values and outliers, features selected through information gain, a diabetic retinopathy risk prediction model established using the CatBoost and the outputs of the mode interpreted using the SHAP model. Results One thousand early warning data of diabetes complications derived from diabetes complication early warning dataset from the National Clinical Medical Sciences Data Center were used in this study. The CatBoost-based model for diabetic retinopathy prediction performed the best in the comparative model test. ALB_CR, HbA1c, UPR_24, NEPHROPATHY and SCR were positively correlated with diabetic retinopathy, while CP, HB, ALB, DBILI and CRP were negatively correlated with diabetic retinopathy. The relationships between HEIGHT, WEIGHT and ESR characteristics and diabetic retinopathy were not significant. Conclusion The risk factors for diabetic retinopathy include poor renal function, elevated blood glucose level, liver disease, hematonosis and dysarteriotony, among others. Diabetic retinopathy can be prevented by monitoring and effectively controlling relevant indices. In this study, the influence relationships between the features were also analyzed to further explore the potential factors of diabetic retinopathy, which can provide new methods and new ideas for the early prevention and clinical diagnosis of subsequent diabetic retinopathy.