Car-following model based on spatial expectation effect in connected vehicle environment: modeling, stability analysis and identification

In driving situations, if drivers have advanced access to downstream traffic conditions ahead of time, they may modify their driving behavior accordingly. This proactive approach can help reduce frequent acceleration and deceleration of vehicles and minimize traffic congestion. This paper considers the average headway of downstream vehicles to predict the traffic conditions of downstream roads. Based on the full velocity difference (FVD) model, we propose a car-following model that incorporates spatial expectation effect (SEFVD). Firstly, a linear stability analysis is performed on the SEFVD model, and the results indicate that the critical value of the SEFVD model is relatively small, and the stabilization region increases gradually with the number of vehicles downstream. Secondly, employing perturbation amplitudes on a virtual circular road, a numerical simulation of the SEFVD model is carried out and compared with the FVD model. The results demonstrate that the SEFVD model has the ability to suppress the formation of traffic oscillations and stabilize vehicle formation more quickly. Simulation results for the 11 cars starting from a traffic signal indicate that the delay time and kinematic wave speed of the SEFVD model are within reasonable limits. To evaluate the changes in energy use, we also carried out energy consumption experiments. The experimental findings show that the SEFVD model uses less energy compared to the FVD model. Finally, the parameters of the models are calibrated and verified by using NGSIM data. The total calibration error of the SEFVD model (m = 2) decreases by 42.97% compared to the FVD model, and the total validation error decreases by 29.3%. The results show that the proposed model can fit the actual data well, and the fitting error is smaller.