Safeguarding the last stronghold: ecology and conservation of Asiatic Cheetah's prey species in Turan Biosphere Reserve (Iran)

Identifying suitable habitats for wild felids is essential for effective area-based conservation efforts. However, modelling habitat suitability for extremely rare and endangered taxa such as the Asiatic Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) is challenging due to limited data availability. To address this, our study focused on analysing the distribution factors of the Asiatic Cheetah's main prey species, including the Wild Goat (Capra aegagrus), Urial (Ovis vignei), Goitered Gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa), Jebeer Gazelle (Gazella bennettii), and Cape Hare (Lepus capensis) in the Turan Biosphere Reserve (TBR), a critical Cheetah habitat in Iran. To determine habitat suitability for these prey species, we conducted a systematic field survey along 30 transects measuring 16km each by collecting data in each 1km interval, resulting in 1172 direct observations of their presence. These observations were then correlated with 44 variables grouped into four categories: bioclimatic, topography, vegetation, and distance to anthropogenic and natural features. Suitability maps were generated using a hierarchical modelling approach. Among the observed prey species, Urial had the highest frequency of sightings (675 visual observations over eight seasons), followed by Goitered Gazelle (564 observations), Cape Hare (278 observations), Jebeer Gazelle (232 observations), and Wild Goat (208 observations). The most influential predictors affecting prey species distribution were mean summer temperature (with optimal ranges at lower temperatures), terrain relief roughness (with optimal ranges at intermediate roughness), distance to wells (with optimal ranges at shorter distances), and distance to corrals (with variable optimal ranges across species). Our findings indicate that the western and eastern mountainous areas, along with their hilly surroundings, as well as the northwest and western plains of TBR, constitute the most suitable habitats for these five prey species. These models and suitability maps provide crucial evidence for implementing conservation measures in the vulnerable habitats of the Asiatic Cheetah and its primary prey species. Environmental conditions can be enhanced through the management of water sources, roads, corrals, and livestock grazing. In addition, the fragmentation of suitable areas within TBR highlights the importance of preserving corridors between these fragmented habitats. We recommend re-evaluating and expanding the boundaries of Turan National Park, Turan Wildlife Refuge, and Turan Biosphere Reserve to ensure the long-term conservation of this threatened felid species and its associated ecosystems.