Estimating the Scarlet Fever Epidemics Using a Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Model*

Scarlet fever (SF) is a common infectious disease caused by group A streptococcus (GAS)[1]. During the 18th and 19th centuries, SF was a significant cause of mortality in children aged 5-15 years worldwide[2]. The incidence and fatality rates of SF have decreased remarkably due to the widespread use of effective antibiotics and improvements in diet and sanitation[3]. However, the recent resurgence of SF has sparked significant interest in infectious diseases[1,3]. Given the insufficient understanding of the triggers that cause SF outbreaks and the absence of available vaccines to prevent GAS infection to date[1], effective prevention and control programs are needed to manage the ongoing spread of SF.