Vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate changes in Senegal's drylands: measurement at the household level and determinant assessment

The resilience capacity of smallholder households is one of the main drivers of their ability to continue to farm and make investments in the fragile dryland regions. This paper aims to assess the resilience profile of smallholder farmers in the face of climate change and the factors influencing it in three dryland sub-regions of Senegal, namely, Louga, Kaffrine, and Thies. We developed a composite index of climate resilience (CICR) using data on farmers' perceptions of climate variability and their perceived ability to withstand, adapt, and bounce back in the event of climatic shocks. Drought, strong winds, and soil fertility decline because of climate change emerged as the main climate hazards impacting smallholder farming systems. The CICR value ranged from -2 for the most vulnerable households to +2 for the most resilient households. On average, all the households were found to be vulnerable, with an average CICR value of -0.2. The LOUGA region was the most vulnerable, with an average CICR value of -0.36, followed by THIES (-0.2). The KAFFRINE region was relatively less vulnerable, with a CICR value of -0.1. Ordered logit model estimates show that the chances of improving CICR decrease with the increase of the household head's age until 59 years. Access to training on climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and climate information appeared to have the potential to increase by 171% the chance of the household improving its resilience status. Analysis also shows that one more woman working off-farm or in-home gardening has the potential to multiply by four times the chances of households being more resilient. This highlights the importance of empowering women to enhance household resilience to climate change. The off-farm revenue increased the chance to improve the resilience status of the farm household by 62% and the receipt of transfer revenue by 50%. This study provides a robust method for quantifying resilience or wellbeing and its drivers and enriches our understanding of the resilience ability of farmers to climate change in a West African context. It can be useful in designing effective adaptation interventions and improving the overall wellbeing of smallholder farmers.