Risky choice and diminishing sensitivity in MaaS context: A nonlinear logit analysis of traveler behavior

In the rapidly transforming landscape of urban transportation, Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has emerged as a potentially transformative solution to adapt to fluctuating travel demand. However, despite arguments in the literature suggesting that uncertainty in travel plans may influence travelers’ preferences for MaaS, the extent and mechanisms of this impact remain relatively underexplored. This study aims to bridge this gap by evaluating travelers’ preferences toward MaaS subscriptions, mode choices, and their reactions to uncertainty within a risky-choice modeling framework. We incorporate a linear-specified benchmark model and two nonlinear models (one based on Expected Utility Theory with Constant Absolute Risk Aversion adjustments, and the other on Prospect Theory), to estimate travelers’ risk perceptions and their valuation of gains and losses associated with travel time and costs caused by occasional activities during commute trips. The data utilized in our study originates from a specifically designed stated preference survey carried out in Hong Kong. Our findings present insightful observations into MaaS bundle configurations, socio-demographic patterns, and notably, behaviors under uncertain circumstances. In the face of uncertainty, we observe a noticeable increase in reluctance to adopt MaaS, and a heightened preference for taxis. The models also underscore significant risk aversion and diminishing sensitivity concerning travel time and cost, with these tendencies proving more pronounced for travel time compared to cost. These insights are valuable for policymakers and MaaS operators, offering an enhanced understanding of users’ risk attitudes and the intricate interplay between travelers’ preferences for MaaS and the uncertainties inherent in daily travel.