Biogeographic history of Pterocarya (Juglandaceae) inferred from phylogenomic and fossil data

Pterocarya (Juglandaceae) is disjunctly distributed in East Asia and the Caucasus region today, but its fossils are widely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere. We first inferred phylogeny with time estimation of Pterocarya under node-dating (ND) based on plastomes of all eight extant species and tip-dating (TD) based on plastomes and 69 morphological characters of 19 extant and extinct species, respectively. We compared the biogeographical reconstructions on the timetrees from ND and TD, respectively, and then compiled 83 fossil records and 599 current occurrences for predicting the potential distributions for the past and the future. The most recent comment ancestor of Pterocarya is inferred in East Asia at 40.46 Ma (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 28.04-54.86) under TD and 26.81 Ma (95% HPD: 23.03-33.12) under ND. The current distribution was attributed to one dispersal and one vicariant event without fossils, but as many as six dispersal, six vicariant, and 11 local extinction events when considering fossils. Pterocarya migrated between East Asia and North America via the Bering Land Bridge during the early Oligocene and the early Miocene periods. With the closure of Turgai Strait, Pterocarya dispersed between East Asia and Europe through the Miocene. The potential distribution analyses indicated that Pterocarya preferred warm temperate regions across the Northern Hemisphere since the Oligocene, but the drastic temperature decline caused its extinction in high latitudes. Except for Pterocarya fraxinifolia and Pterocarya stenoptera, suitable habitats for this genus are predicted to contract by 2070 due to climate change.