Unveiling the link between Raphidiopsis raciborskii blooms and saxitoxin levels: Evaluating water quality in tropical reservoirs, Brazil

The proliferation of Raphidiopsis raciborskii blooms has sparked concerns regarding potential human exposure to heightened saxitoxins (STXs) levels. Thus, comprehending how environmental elements drive the proliferation of this STXs-producing species can aid in predicting human exposure risks. This study aimed to explore the link between cyanobacteria R. raciborskii, STXs cyanotoxins, and environmental factors in 37 public supply reservoirs in the tropical region and assess potential health hazards these toxins pose in the reservoir waters. A Structural Equation Model was used to assess the impact of environmental factors (water volume and physical and chemical variables) on R. raciborskii biomass and STXs levels. Furthermore, the potential risk of STXs exposure from consuming untreated reservoir water was evaluated. Lastly, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of STXs across the reservoirs was computed. Our findings revealed a correlation between R. raciborskii biomass and STXs concentrations. Total phosphorus emerged as a critical environmental factor positively influencing species biomass and indirectly affecting STXs levels. pH significantly influenced STXs concentrations, indicating different factors influencing R. raciborskii biomass and STXs. Significantly, for the first time, the risk of STXs exposure was gauged using the risk quotient (HQ) for untreated water consumption from public supply reservoirs in Brazil's semi -arid region. Although the exposure risks were generally low to moderate, the CDF underscored the risk of chronic exposure due to low toxin concentrations in over 90% of samples. These outcomes emphasize the potential expansion of R. raciborskii in tropical settings due to increased phosphorus, amplifying waterborne STXs levels and associated intoxication risks. Thus, this study reinforces the importance of nutrient control, particularly phosphorus regulation, as a mitigation strategy against R. raciborskii blooms and reducing STXs intoxication hazards.