Sustainable management of coral reef based on ecology-social resilience level in Kotania Bay, Indonesia

This study aims to examine the dynamics of socio-ecological resilience of coral reef in Kotania Bay, Indonesia using a spatial-dynamic approach. The results showed that Kotania Bay coral reef in 2023 had 4 resilience classes, including very low, low, medium, and high. In addition, the highest resilience index value was 0.74, while the lowest was 0.11. Projections for 2028 predicted a reduction to 3 classes, including very low (47.37%), low (42.11%), and medium (10.53%). A further reduction to 2 classes, namely very low (73.68%) and low (26.32%), was also projected to occur by 2032. In 2038, the coral reef socio-ecological resilience was anticipated to decrease to the very low (100%) category, while a total loss was expected by 2043. The results showed that a resilience index value of 0.4 could be used as an indicator of the presence of coral-living biota and surrounding biota in good condition but vulnerable to environmental social pressures. Meanwhile, a value of less than 0.4 showed a decrease in the recovery ability despite the reduction in environmental pressure.