Risk factors, patterns, and outcome predictors of late recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection: A large cohort study with long-term follow-up results

Background Late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection significantly influences long-term patient survival outcomes, and yet it remains understudied. This study aims to explore the risk factors and patterns of late recurrence and predictors of subsequent outcome. Methods This single-center retrospective study analyzed 1,701 consecutive patients who achieved a disease-free survival period exceeding 2 years after curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between 2001 and 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses of factors associated with late recurrence and death after recurrence were conducted using Cox’s models. Results The mean age of patients was 60.2 years, with 76.8% being male. During a median follow-up of 8.1 years, 653 patients (38.4%) experienced late recurrence, with median time to recurrence being 4.0 years (interquartile range, 2.7–6.0). Factors such as age >60, chronic hepatitis C, cirrhosis, high albumin-bilirubin grade, absence of family history, multiple tumors, satellite nodules, alpha-fetoprotein levels <400 ng/mL, and minor hepatic resection were identified as risk factors for late recurrence. Among patients with late recurrence, 131 (20.1%) underwent surgical treatment, 272 (41.7%) received radiofrequency ablation, and 27 (4.1%) exhibited extrahepatic lesions. A higher-high albumin-bilirubin grade, recurrent tumor >3 cm, and nonsurgical treatment emerged as predictors of death after late recurrence. Conclusion Over one-third of patients who remain disease-free for more than 2 years postresection will experience late recurrence during subsequent follow-up. For 2-year disease-free survivors, risk factors for late recurrence differ from early recurrence. Treating underlying hepatitis is of paramount importance, given its association with both the risk of late recurrence and survival outcomes post-recurrence.