Effects of climate change on insect distributions and invasions

Abstract Large-scale range shifts towards higher latitudes change have occurred in many (but not all) studied species, yet spatial changes may be more complex. Because insects are small organisms, fine-scale environmental heterogeneity (topography, habitats, land use and microclimate) may be more relevant to understand their response to climate change. In addition, insects differ in their ecophysiology and life-history traits, preventing an overall forecast of insects’ responses to climate change. Species range shifts are often not synchronized, creating new opportunities for interactions (facilitation or competition) within new communities. Moreover, climate change may affect the introduction probability, establishment likelihood and dispersal dynamics of introduced species. A variety of models have been developed to predict future insect distributions, ranging from simple species distribution models to more complex mechanistic models integrating species demography, dispersal and biotic interactions. Combining these predictions with experimental data will improve our understanding of species distributions under climate change.