Electrostatic and Electromagnetic Orbital Debris Generated Solitons: Theory and Analysis Techniques

Orbital debris has become a problem of national importance as our dependence on space-based resources has increased and constellations of satellites providing importance services are proliferating. Debris that are too small to be tracked individually, but large enough to damage, disable, or disrupt a satellite are particularly dangerous and thus there are now underway several large-scale efforts to improve our ability to track and detect debris with sizes below 10 cm. Recently, a new approach was suggested [1], in which it was recognized that orbital debris is immersed in a plasma and thus obtains an electrical charge. The linear response of a moving charged particle in a plasma is well known, but it was recently theorized [1], experimentally demonstrated [2], and numerically simulated [3] that a nonlinear response could produce a large amplitude soliton in the background plasma and that such a soliton could perhaps be detected more easily than the orbital debris. In follow up works this theory was extended to include electromagnetic solitons on the ion skin depth scale [4]. In this talk we review the theory, extend the theory to account for the nonuniform flow of the plasma around the debris, and extend the theory to include electromagnetic fluctuations on the electron skin depths scale. We also address the problem of how to determine from the observations if you have indeed observed a soliton. We develop a Bayesian Spectral analysis technique that provides a framework for identifying solitons in the data and a framework for determining the probability that a given event is a soliton and not some other wave-packet. We discuss how these results can enhance our ability to detect and track orbital debris.