Nonlinear relationships between human development and international student mobility: The prominent role of employment prospects and cultural and linguistic ties

Higher education is a key global market and considerable literature has focused on investigating the determinants of international student mobility (ISM). However, less is known about the extent to which the relative influence of these factors is moderated by local conditions and vary across origin countries. Drawing on a unique data set of undergraduate applications from the UK Colleges and Admissions Service, we analyse variations in the contextual determinants of ISM flows to the United Kingdom across countries of origin over a 10-year period (2009-2019). We run a suite of negative binomial gravity models to understand the key influences of ISM and uncover the spatial heterogeneity of these influences. Our findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between the level of development of origin countries and ISM flows. Although countries from higher development levels are more likely to send students to the United Kingdom, there appears to be a dip in applications at the mid-levels of development. Given the nonlinearity of this relationship, we seek to understand how countries across different levels of development respond to the typical factors that are seen to influence flows of international students. We also see substantial heterogeneity of the influence of different factors for origin countries, with some countries being influenced by employment opportunities and others by cultural and linguistic ties. However, this variation is not necessarily determined by the countries' level of development. Our findings have implications for policy makers, educators and researchers seeking to navigate and influence global student mobility trends. Our study highlights the need for tailored strategies to attract and retain international students from specific origin countries, recognising the multifaceted nature of ISM determinants.