Ensemble modelling reveals shrinkage of suitable habitat for Himalayan Boxwood (Buxus wallichiana Bail.) under climate change - implications for conservation

Conserving mountain species under climate change is a major ecological concern. It is still unclear how potential climate change will affect mountain plant species. The present study investigates the potential distribution of Himalayan Boxwood (B. wallichiana) under current and future climate scenarios using an ensemble modelling approach. The results showed that the distribution of B. wallichiana is determined by mean annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest quarter and mean annual temperature. The model predicted that B. wallichiana has a narrow distributional range and is rarely found in the Himalaya under current climate. The future model predictions showed a considerable reduction in suitable habitats for B. wallichiana under all climate scenarios; more pronounced under PCP 8.5 for the year 2070. The model also revealed that currently suitable areas are likely to become unsuitable in the future and vice -versa. There is an urgent need to develop an appropriate policy for the conservation and management of B. wallichiana. The present study will contribute significantly to the formulation of appropriate policies for its conservation and management.