El Niño Enhances Snowline Rise and Ice Loss on the World's Largest Tropical Ice Cap

Abstract. Tropical glaciers are essential water resources in the central Andes as vital water resources and crucial climate indicators, currently undergoing rapid retreat. However, understanding their vulnerability to the combined effects of persistent warming, short-term climate phenomena, and interannual fluctuations remains limited. Here we automate mapping of key mass balance parameters on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), the world’s largest tropical ice cap. Using Landsat's near-infrared (NIR) band, we analyze snow cover area (SCA) and total area (TA) and calculate the Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR) and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) over nearly 40 years (1985–2023). Between 1985 and 2022, the QIC lost ~46 % and ~34 % of its SCA and TA, respectively. We show that the QIC’s loss in SCA and rise in ELA are exacerbated by El Niño events, which are strongly correlated to the preceding wet season’s Ocean Niño Index (ONI). We observe lower levels of correlation to more recent El Niño events as anthropogenic climatic impacts overwhelm the natural forcing and continue to exacerbate loss at the QIC.