Effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus prevention strategies by mapping the geographic dispersion pattern of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence in Nanning, China

The Guangxi government initiated two rounds of the Guangxi AIDS Conquering Project (GACP) in 2010 (Phase I) and 2015 (Phase II) to control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemics. However, the effectiveness of GACP in HIV prevention and treatment has rarely been reported. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the GACP implemented in Guangxi, China and provide data for strategy and praxis improvements to achieve Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 95-95 targets. We used spatial approaches to trace the spatiotemporal distribution properties, epidemic trends, and correlation between macroscopic factors and HIV incidence using data from the Chinese HIV/AIDS case reporting system to explore the effects of the GACP. During the GACP era, the HIV epidemic stabilized in urban centers, showing a downward trend in the Hengzhou and Binyang Counties in the eastern region, whereas it continued to increase in rural areas of the northwest region, such as the Long’an, Mashan, Shanglin, and Wuming Districts. The linear directional mean (LDM) of HIV infection reported cases displayed a southeast–northwest direction, with an LDM value of 12.52°. Compared with that in Phase I, Hengzhou withdrew from the high-high clustering area, and the west–north suburban counties pulled out the low-low clustering area during Phase II. Significant HIV clusters were identified in the eastern region during Phase I, whereas these clusters emerged in the northwestern areas during Phase II. Regarding HIV, socioeconomic status, population mobility, and medical care levels were the key social drivers of heterogeneous spatial distribution. The GACP assisted in effectively managing the HIV epidemic in urban and eastern areas of Nanning City. However, prevention and control efforts in rural regions, particularly those located in the northwest, may not have yielded comparable outcomes. To address this disparity, allocating additional resources and implementing tailored intervention measures for these rural areas are imperative.