Clinical and CT Quantitative Features for Predicting Liver Metastases in Patients with Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Study with Prospective/External Validation

Rationale and Objectives We aimed to evaluate clinical characteristics and quantitative CT imaging features for the prediction of liver metastases (LMs) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs). Methods Patients diagnosed with pathologically confirmed PNETs were included, 133 patients were in the training group, 22 patients in the prospective internal validation group, and 28 patients in the external validation group. Clinical information and quantitative features were collected. The independent variables for predicting LMs were confirmed through the implementation of univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by conducting receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting LMs in the training and validation groups. Results PNETs with LMs demonstrated significantly larger diameter and lower arterial/portal tumor-parenchymal enhancement ratio, arterial/portal absolute enhancement value (AAE/PAE value) (p < 0.05). After multivariate analyses, A high level of tumor marker (odds ratio (OR): 5.32; 95% CI, 1.54–18.35), maximum diameter larger than 24.6 mm (OR: 7.46; 95% CI, 1.70–32.72), and AAE value ≤ 51 HU (OR: 4.99; 95% CI, 0.93–26.95) were independent positive predictors of LMs in patients with PNETs, with area under curve (AUC) of 0.852 (95%CI, 0.781–0.907). The AUCs for prospective internal and external validation groups were 0.883 (95% CI, 0.686–0.977) and 0.789 (95% CI, 0.602–0.916), respectively. Conclusion Tumor marker, maximum diameter and absolute enhancement value in arterial phase were independent predictors with good predictive performance for the prediction of LMs in patients with PNETs. Combining clinical and quantitative features may facilitate the attainment of good predictive precision in predicting LMs.