Modelling failures in smart grids by a bilinear logistic regression approach

Modeling and recognizing events in complex systems through machine learning techniques is a challenging task. Especially if the model is constrained to be explainable and interpretable, while ensuring high levels of accuracy. In this paper, we adopt a bilinear logistic regression model in which the parameters are trained in a data-driven fashion on a real-world dataset of power grid failure data. The bilinear white-box model – grounded on a specific neural architecture – has been proven effective in classifying faulty states with a performance comparable to several classifiers in technical literature. Additionally, the low computational complexity of the bilinear model, in terms of the number of free parameters, allows gaining insights into the fault phenomenon correlating the events that impact the power grid (exogenous causes) with its constitutive characteristics, thence eliciting the relational information hidden in the data. The proposed model is also able to estimate a vulnerability vector that can be associated, as a suitable characteristic “label”, to power grid components, opening the way, as will be deeply demonstrated in the following, not only to predictive maintenance programs or condition monitoring tasks but also to risk assessment and scenario analyses in line with the explainable AI paradigm.