Evidence of distribution overlap between Atlantic and Baltic grey seals

Grey seals from both the Atlantic and Baltic Sea subspecies are recovering from dramatic declines and recolonising former ranges, potentially leading to overlapping distributions and an emerging subspecies transition zone in Kattegat between Denmark and Sweden. The two subspecies have asynchronous moulting and pupping seasons. We present aerial survey data from 2011 to 2023 in Danish Kattegat during the Atlantic subspecies' moulting (March-April) and pupping (December-January) seasons, as well as the Baltic subspecies' moulting season (May-June). During the Atlantic subspecies' peak moulting season, 82% of the grey seals were recorded north of the island of L AE so (N57 degrees 18 ', E11 degrees 00 '). In contrast, during the Baltic moulting season in those years, only 9% of the grey seals were recorded here. This indicates a predominance of Atlantic grey seals in the north and Baltic grey seals in central and southern Kattegat. In 2022 and 2023, three pups were recorded around L AE so during early January, which coincides with the pupping season of northern Wadden Sea grey seals. Previously, pups have been recorded in the same locations during the Baltic pupping season, which demonstrates overlapping breeding ranges. Grey seals are known to have plasticity in the timing of pupping indicated by a west to east cline of progressively later pupping in the eastern North Atlantic. Historical sources document that the Baltic pupping season in Kattegat was earlier than it has been in recent years. Thus, the expanding ranges may be associated with convergence of Atlantic and Baltic subspecies' pupping seasons and potential hybridisation in this emerging transition zone.