Wastewater-based estimation of diabetes mellitus prevalence in 237 cities: A cross-China study

Diabetes mellitus, a metabolic disease characterized by hyperglycemia, has been witnessed as a rapidly escalating worldwide health crisis. China currently had 140.9 million diabetic population in 2021, which was the largest globally. DM has witnessed a significant surge in the past few decades, leading to an alarming rise in the overall burden caused by this disease. To monitor the near real-time DM prevalence and the consumption of first-line anti-diabetic drugs, a wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) approach based on the back-calculation of metformin concentration was implemented in 237 cities in China. The quantitative analysis of metformin in wastewater was conducted by LC-MS/MS with satisfactory results of method validation. The average concentration of metformin in wastewater was 14.07 ± 13.16 μg/L, and the per capita consumption was 5.16 ± 2.08 mg/day/inh, ranging from 0.90 to 10.36 ± 4.63 mg/day/inh. The calculated metformin prevalence was found to be 0.52 % ± 0.28 %, and the final estimated DM prevalence was 11.33 % ± 4.99 %, which was nearly consistent with the result of the International Diabetes Federation survey of 9.98 %. The results suggested that metformin might be one of the suitable WBE biomarkers in DM monitoring and WBE strategy could potentially enable the estimation of DM prevalence in most of Chinese cities after reasonable correction of associated parameters.