Lifespan development of thalamic nuclei and characterizing thalamic nuclei abnormalities in schizophrenia using normative modeling

Thalamic abnormalities have been repeatedly implicated in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and other neurodevelopmental disorders. Uncovering the etiology of thalamic abnormalities and how they may contribute to illness phenotypes faces at least two obstacles. First, the typical developmental trajectories of thalamic nuclei and their association with cognition across the lifespan are largely unknown. Second, modest effect sizes indicate marked individual differences and pose a significant challenge to personalized medicine. To address these knowledge gaps, we characterized the development of thalamic nuclei volumes using normative models generated from the Human Connectome Project Lifespan datasets (5–100+ years), then applied them to an independent clinical cohort to determine the frequency of thalamic volume deviations in people with schizophrenia (17–61 years). Normative models revealed diverse non-linear age effects across the lifespan. Association nuclei exhibited negative age effects during youth but stabilized in adulthood until turning negative again with older age. Sensorimotor nuclei volumes remained relatively stable through youth and adulthood until also turning negative with older age. Up to 18% of individuals with schizophrenia exhibited abnormally small (i.e., below the 5th centile) mediodorsal and pulvinar volumes, and the degree of deviation, but not raw volumes, correlated with the severity of cognitive impairment. While case–control differences are robust, only a minority of patients demonstrate unusually small thalamic nuclei volumes. Normative modeling enables the identification of these individuals, which is a necessary step toward precision medicine.