An effective and predictive model for the long-term variations of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere"

Investigating the connection between solar variability and energetic radiation in the heliosphere is of fundamental importance for assessing radiation exposure and associated risks in space missions. Our research focuses on the solar modulation phenomenon of cosmic rays, that is, on the long-term variation of the cosmic-ray flux and its association with the solar activity cycle. Here we present our endeavors to establish an effective and predictive model of solar modulation. Our model incorporates fundamental physics processes of particle transport such as diffusion, drift, convection and adiabatic cooling, to compute the energy spectrum and temporal evolution of the cosmic radiation in the inner heliosphere. Calibration and validation of our model are performed using the most recent cosmic-ray data from space-based detectors, such as AMS-02 on the International Space Station, along with multichannel observations of solar activity and interplanetary parameters. This comprehensive model not only demonstrates good results in reproducing observations but also showcases its potential in space radiation monitoring and forecasting, offering valuable insights for evaluating exposure in future space missions.