Monitoring subsurface changes in a quick clay area during extreme weather

Some of the more densely populated areas in Norway are in potential quick clay zones. When disturbed, the structure of quick clay can suddenly collapse, and behave and flow as a liquid, potentially having disastrous impact over large areas.  One of the triggering factors for quick clay slides is heavy rainfall. Here, we focus on passive seismic data from two Raspberry shake sensors located in an urban area in Oslo, Norway with quick clay in the subsurface. Using coda wave interferometry, near-surface velocity variations are estimated during the extreme weather ”Hans” (August 2023). We compute auto-correlations and single station cross-correlations of anthropogenic seismic noise (> 1 Hz) over a two-year period leading up to ”Hans”. We observe environmental velocity fluctuations well correlated with air temperature, precipitation and the water level in a nearby river. In particular, freezing and thawing produces strong changes in seismic velocity (up to 4 %). Disregarding freezing, we see the largest change in seismic velocity following the heavy rainfall associated with ”Hans”. This extreme event is associated with a sharp velocity drop anti-correlated with pore pressure. The surface wave-coda is sensitive to changes in shear wave velocity, which in turn can be used to detect changes of the subsurface properties. Therefore, observed velocity variations at the site could have potential for monitoring and early warning of quick clay instabilities.