How drought can affect river network dynamics in a central Germany lowland river catchment

crossref(2024)

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摘要
River network is usually not a static item. More than half of global river exhibit an intermittent pattern, ceasing to flow during drought and rewetting again as the environment getting wetter seasonally. Recently, climate change has led to intensified droughts in central and southern Europe, causing even perennial streams to transition to intermittent flow patterns. Understanding and estimating to what extent drought can affect river network expansion and contraction is important and remains challenging. This study aims to link river network dynamics and subsurface flow and to identify the potential influence of prolonged drought periods on the groundwater-river connection, and concomitant river network dynamics changes. To this end, we have coupled a fully-distributed hydrological model (mHM) with a groundwater model (Modflow) to investigate how prolonged droughts affect river network dynamics at the meso-catchment scale. The model was implemented in the Bode catchment, spanning 3200 km² in central Germany, from 2000 to 2022, in which the period 2018-2022 is considered as drought. We calibrated the model using discharge and groundwater table depth data from 2004 to 2008. Subsequently, we validated it using observations of discharge, groundwater table depth, and river dryness and wetness from 2009 to 2022. The results demonstrate that the model could reproduce the dryness and wetness of river networks. For the groundwater-river exchange, the length of streams with net water loss increased by 6% in the period 2018-2022 compared to 2004-2017. For the river network dynamics, temporally, total river network length shows an apparent decline. The mean and minimum river network length during recent drought years (2018-2022) decreased by 10.4% and 10.9% compared to 2004-2017, respectively. While the maximum river network of each year was reduced only by 4.37%.  Spatially, the decline of river network length mainly occurs in first and second order streams (60.2% and 25.8%). Further analysis of stream persistence shows that approximately 3% of stream reaches shift from perennial to intermittent pattern and around 8% of stream reaches transfer from intermittent pattern to permanently dry due to the drought from 2018 to 2022. This is likely not only to harm aquatic biota but to have a major impact on stream biochemistry as well.
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