Mortality reduction and cumulative excess incidence (CEI) in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening era

The extent to which PSA screening is related to prostate cancer mortality reduction in the United States (US) is controversial. US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) data from 1980 to 2016 were examined to assess the relationship between prostate cancer mortality and cumulative excess incidence (CEI) in the PSA screening era and to clarify the impact of race on this relationship. CEI was considered as a surrogate for the intensity of prostate cancer screening with PSA testing and subsequent biopsy as appropriate. Data from 163,982,733 person-years diagnosed with 544,058 prostate cancers (9 registries, 9% of US population) were examined. Strong inverse linear relationships were noted between CEI and prostate cancer mortality, and 317,356 prostate cancer deaths were avoided. Eight regions of the US demonstrated prostate cancer mortality reduction of 46.0–63.7%. On a per population basis, the lives of more black men than white men were saved in three of four registries with sufficient black populations for comparison. Factor(s) independent of CEI (potential effects of treatment advances) explained 14.6% of the mortality benefit (p-value = 0.3357) while there was a significant main effect of CEI (effect = −0.0064; CI: [−0.0088, −0.0040]; p-value < 0.0001). Therefore, there is a strong relationship between CEI and prostate cancer mortality reduction that was not related to factors independent of screening utilization. Minority populations have experienced large mortality reductions in the context of PSA mass utilization.