Identification of early risk factors for anti-citrullinated-protein-antibody positive rheumatoid arthritis-a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE:Individuals positive for anti-cyclic-peptide-antibodies (anti-CCP) and musculoskeletal complaints (MSK-C) are at risk for developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In this study we aimed to investigate factors involved in arthritis progression. METHODS:Anti-CCP2-positive individuals with MSK-C referred to a rheumatologist were recruited. Individuals lacked arthritis at clinical and ultrasound examination and were followed for ≥three years or until clinical arthritis diagnosis. Blood samples from inclusion were analyzed for; nine anti-citrullinated-protein-antibody (ACPA) reactivities (citrullinated α-1-enolase, fibrinogen, filaggrin, histone, vimentin and tenascin peptides); 92 inflammation-associated proteins; and HLA-shared epitope alleles. Cox regression was applied to the data to identify independent predictors in a model. RESULTS:267 individuals were included with median follow up of 49 months (IQR: 22-60). 101 (38%) developed arthritis after median 14 months (IQR: 6-27). The analysis identified that presence of at least one ACPA reactivity (HR 8.0, 95% CI 2.9-22), ultrasound detected tenosynovitis (HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.0-6.0), IL6 levels (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-1.8) and IL15-Rα levels (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9) are significant independent predictors for arthritis progression in a prediction model (Harrell's C 0.76 [SE 0.02], AUC 0.82 [95% CI 0.76-0.89], cross-validated AUC 0.70 [95% CI 0.56-0.85]). CONCLUSION:We propose a high-Risk-RA phase characterized by presence of ACPA reactivity, tenosynovitis, IL6, and IL15-Rα and suggest that these factors need to be further investigated for their biological effects and clinical values, to identify individuals at particular low risk and high risk for arthritis progression.