Indian Ocean Dipole Intensifies Benguela Niño Through Congo River Discharge

Benguela Niños are periodic episodes of unusual El Niño-like warming in the upwelling zone off the coast of southwest Africa with significant impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal fisheries and regional weather variability.  The strongest Benguela Niño in the past 40 years occurred in February-April 1995 with areal average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2°C and local anomalies up to 4°C off the coast of Angola and Namibia.  Benguela Niños are generated through a combination of remote and regional wind-forced dynamical processes originating within the Atlantic basin. However, a recent study has argued that the extraordinary warming observed in early 1995 resulted from southward advection of unusually high fresh water discharge from the Congo River, which led to the formation of thin mixed layers that trapped heat near the surface to boost coastal SSTs.  The purpose of this presentation is to show that a strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that peaked in September-November 1994 was the reason for the high Congo River discharge in early 1995. IOD events are roughly the Indian Ocean equivalent of El Niño and La Niña events in the Pacific, which are generated though anomalous coupled interactions between surface winds and SSTs. It has been previously demonstrated that the IOD can affect eastern tropical Atlantic sea surface salinity through Congo River basin hydrology.  In particular, positive IOD events (warm SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and cold SSTs in the east) like that which occurred in 1994 lead to elevated Congo River discharge and subsequently lower eastern tropical Atlantic sea surface salinity.  However, it has not been previously shown how these the end-to-end processes originating with IOD development can affect Benguela Niños. We use a variety of data sets and reanalyses (both oceanic and atmospheric) to show how during the 1994 IOD event, moisture was transported through the atmosphere from the western Indian Ocean to the Congo River basin where it converged and rained out to increase Congo River discharge.  The freshwater discharge in turn was advected southward in early 1995 which resulted in formation of thin surface mixed layers atop thick barrier layers that arrested the entrainment of cold subsurface waters, thereby amplifying Benguela Nino SSTs. We further show that this sequence of events has occurred at other times, as for example during a weak 2015 IOD and subsequent 2016 Benguela Niño.  These results suggest that the significant temporal lags between IOD development, Congo River basin rainfall, river discharge, and offshore accumulation of freshwater offer opportunities for improved seasonal forecasting of Indian Ocean impacts on the Atlantic through ocean-atmosphere-land interactions.